TALIBAN,UPCOMING ELECTIONS AND WITHDRAWAL OF ALLIED FORCES MILLIONS OF AFGHAN REFUGEES READY TO CROSS BORDER INTO PAKISTAN

The turmoil that has blighted Afghanistan, particularly over the past 15 years, has forced huge swathes of people out of their homes. Many of them have long since abandoned hope of ever returning.



Now there are increasing fears that the refugee situation will get much worse, with millions more predicted to flee fighting in Afghanistan.

There are an estimated 1.6 million registered Afghan refugees who, having fled conflict in their homeland over the past three decades, now live in slums and – initially makeshift, now permanent – camps in neighbouring Pakistan. Many, like 12-year-old Awal Gul, live in sprawling slums on the outskirts of Islamabad where poor health is caused by stagnant water and a lack of basic amenities. "My land is in Afghanistan, and we have nothing in Pakistan," he told Associated Press this month.



Instead of decreasing, as Pakistani authorities had hoped they might, the numbers of Afghans seeking refuge across the border is now set to dramatically increase. This week, reports emerged that Pakistan was braced for a "worst case scenario" in which an estimated three million refugees would cross from Afghanistan during 20 days in July.

If, as appears increasingly likely, Taliban militants target electoral candidates in the run-up to Afghanistan's presidential polls in April, any resulting instability when President Hamid Karzai steps aside a few months later will produce a new refugee crisis, according to Pakistani authorities. Bloomberg has reported that Pakistan now fears that a military operation to flush out Taliban and al-Qa'ida militants in Waziristan and other border areas could be "too difficult" because of the refugee situation. A further 500,000 refugees could arrive after October or November, predicted Abdul Qadir Baloch, the Pakistani federal minister for states and frontier regions.


NO TELLING HOW MANY OF THEM WILL USE IT AS AN EXCUSE AND TRY TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO EU AND U.S.


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